At 15:30 Beijing time on October 6, 2023, xrp price today was $0.50, down 1.8% from 24 hours ago. (Data source:) In the past hour, CoinMarketCap reached a peak of $0.51 (+2.0%) and a trough of $0.49 (-2.0%). Price volatility (standard deviation) was 0.8%, higher than the 30-day average of 0.6%. The current circulating market capitalization is 27.8 billion US dollars, with a 24-hour trading volume of 1.8 billion US dollars. Among them, 38% (684 million US dollars) is via Binance Exchange and 12% (216 million US dollars) is via Coinbase Pro. The big events of price action today are: After the release of the US non-farm payroll data, xrp price today gained rapidly 4.1% from $0.49 to $0.51 in 10:30-11:00, and then reversed the 50% profit.
On-chain metrics show that today’s large XRP transactions (≥ $100,000) amounted to 1,152 (year-on-year growth of 15%), with a total of $720 million, of which 63% were introduced by exchanges (selling pressure signals). Santiment observed that an unknown address transferred 5 million XRP (approximately 2.5 million US dollars) to Binance at 13:20, causing the price to drop by 1.2% within 10 minutes. Meanwhile, the number of “retail addresses” holding 10,000 to 100,000 XRP increased by 1.1%, and the holding ratio rose to 23.2%, which can serve as a buffer for near-term volatility.
Technical indicators show divergence between bulls and bears. The 4-hour RSI of xrp price today is at 52 (neutral zone), but the MACD histogram tells below the zero axis, indicating a weakening selling pressure. The key support is at $0.48 (50-day moving average), and the resistance is at $0.52 (Bollinger Band Upper track). TradingView statistics show that in the event of a break above $0.51 (today’s volume-weighted average price), it may trigger the liquidation of $82 million worth of short contracts (Source: CoinGlass); Conversely, a break below $0.49 will result in a long margin call of $65 million.
Event-driven market sentiment. Today, the keyword “XRP” on the Twitter platform was tweeted 125,000 times (42% more than yesterday), with positive sentiment accounting for 58% (data tool: LunarCrush). However, the cryptocurrency fear and Greed index dropped from 48 to 45 (neutral to bearish), possibly due to Bitcoin’s decline of 1.5% during the same period. Bloomberg reported that the next hearing of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit is scheduled for November 2nd. Legal experts reckon the probability of SEC winning the case has been decently changed to 48%, leading to some investors taking profit.
At the macro level, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to 4.8% (the highest in 2007), which pressurizes the valuation of risky assets. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies shrunk by 1.2% today, but xrp price today performed slightly better than the overall market (-1.8% vs. -1.2%). In the derivatives market, the implied volatility of XRP options on the Deribit exchange increased to 65% (55% yesterday), indicating that traders are betting on increased price volatility over the next seven days, with a 68% probability of a target range of $0.46-$0.54.
Current trading suggestion: If the xrp price today is held above $0.49 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), it can be bullish to $0.51 in the near term (risk-reward ratio 1:2); If it falls below the support price of $0.48, it can test $0.45 (the 61.8% retracement level). It must be noted that exchanges like Coinbase can suspend trading during wild volatility (e.g., the GameStop incident in 2021). It is recommended to set a stop-loss at $0.47 (2% below the intraday low).